Monday, October 06, 2008

Crude Oil Price down to US$90

On July 3, 2008, crude oil price shot up to US$145.85.

On May 21, 2008 it was traded at US$130.28.

On March 2008 it was traded at US$109.85.

On Jan 7, 2008 it was traded at US$97.91. On Jan 2008, motorist pays RM1.92 per litre for petrol.


Now, October 6, 2008 the crude oil price is US$90.41.

That means the price of crude oil has dropped by 38.01% since July 3.

On June 5, 2008, the government increase the price of petrol from RM1.92 to RM2.70 per litre. That's 40.63% increase.

Now the price of petrol has been reduced to RM2.45 (since September 25, 2008) - the increase is reduced to only 27.60%.

But the crude oil has dropped 38%. In simple arithmetic, the price of petrol should be reduced by 73sen (from RM2.70), i.e. it should be RM1.97 per litre. Could the government please adjust it accordingly?

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55 comments:

lucia said...

oh! if only the gomen could bring it down to RM1.70 per litre - i doubt it very much! bringing it down, not so easy for them lah but bringing it up, no problem.

BENGGAP.LAH said...

will Pak Benggap Lah reduce the fuel price to the old days RM1.92 as Hari Raya Gift, if not Deepavali Handout?

knowing him, no way so long he is the PM of the retarded nation.

BENGGAP.LAH said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rauff said...

It is not so simple.... even if it does drop to the old price~ would the cost of daily goods fall with it? Don't bet on it~prices of goods will never drop and the government does not really care that much but their own pockets. What is the point of affording petrol and diesel when our daily consumables are high?

KIMHO8 said...

How will they know?
They will never know....
They have their
official mighty powers,
official fuel energy,
official scholarship,
official residence,
official vacations,
official spending,
official vehicles,
official medical,
official pension,
official honours,
Official funeral
and the end.
Not yet.......

msiaman said...

When the government is not for its people, it will justify increases. Anyone opposes is branded as playing up sentiments of dissent.

It will kelentong and delay in reducing the prices 'if' they are ever going to reduce it. Just like the last 10cent decrease. Only shameless government will do that kind of act.

Then they will say they have shifted the subsidy to annual rebate which has gone through POS Malaysia and someone's pocket first! What else is new? Who trust the government these days?

KIMHO8 said...

Perhaps the careless whisper MCA can fight for us because they will speak louder, ma! Go, go, go, MCA!
I will ask my husband go, go, go, too since his membership still valid. LOL

the Constantly Dramatic One said...

If bring down then not enough money for them lah....

bayi said...

So the price of crude is coming down again.

But our lives will never be the same again. The gomen chose to increase the price by 41% in a single move, causing the market to react by spiralling the costs of all he essential goods, resulting in the a continuous cycle of further price increases. The consequential runaway inflation rates are still felt today.

Even if the price of crude were to fall below its previous levels and the gomen were to redue the prices at the pump to the previous levels, we will never see the ccost of living come down proportionately. Some of the prices of goods, once increased, will never come down again. This is the sad reality.

And that is the sad legacy of Prime Minister Ahmad Badawi.

artchan said...

Maybe if there is another by election..there is pressure to reduce price..

so can we hope for a few wakil rakyat to suffer heart attacks or resign as wakil rakyat..and have by elections. The only trick is for the wakil rakyat to resign one by one..staggered...and every by elections the pressure to "bribe" the voters with fuel price reduction.

CK said...

artchan,
maybe they're waiting for pensiangan? oh...by the way when's tat?

Maverick SM said...

Lucia,

Not RM1.70 lah; RM1.97 is okay lah.

Benggap.lah,

We must have faith in a man who is facing challenging times.

Rauff,

Well, it still better than.

KIMHO8,

Ya lah, MCA can carelessly whisper.

msiaman,

You are half right; the govt lost some revenue because Petronas also lost some income due to the crude price fall.

Constant Drama,

hahaha... good point.

Bayi,

Well, it is still something the people will remember Pak Lah for.

Artchan,

You not so kindhearted.

CK,

You Sabah okay ah???

Jefus said...

the demand has diminished. the worldwide economy is slowing down, and we are export driven,..... we will be affected.

it will take a long time for the dust to settle before the damage can be assessed.

even if the prices do come down the economy will not recover immediately,

ok, it will soften the impact on the pay packet,...

the inflation will take time to work itself out of the price system,.....

the damage has been done.

RaZ said...

I think your parents wasted monies sending you people to school. Go learn economics and figure out this buffer thingy the government is doing first before shooting your loud mouth off.

Bitch, bitch, bitch that's all you people know how to do. Try putting your fervor into exploiting opportunities like Vincent Tan or Ananda do. Oh, no opportunities? Try abandoning the women-like bitching attitude and learn to be more sociable.

Not that I am in favor of the present establishment, but I do know when to bitch and when not to.

Price of petrol? It should come down if the world prices maintain at this level. RM 1.92 per liter was based on USD 70/bbl. So dun expect much.

Still can't afford? Take the train. Otherwise take the slow boat to China.


Not that I support the badawi's government.

Maverick SM said...

Jefus,

You are wrong; demand has slowed down because of the economic slowdown. However, winter is coming and the demand will fluctuate up.

raz,

So you think your parent didn't waste money on you? That's good! As long as you think you are good, then you are good for yourself. Oh, BTW, you can take a boat to Somali too.

Jefus said...

Mav,

the greatest consumer nation uses other forms of energy to power to heat up their house for winter, they use petrol ( gasoline ) mostly for their cars,...

and China economy is slowing because of the US economic turmoil,..

the price drop will be checked by OPEC attempts to halt a freefall....

I dunno if Venezuela is in and Indonesia is out of OPEC yet but the forces there will be changing. ( cant be reading all that stuff so early in the day,.... I got a job to keep!!!)

Jefus said...

just past 0900 am here

RaZ said...

Maverick,

Sure I may do that one day. At least I will appreciate what we have here better. (Especially since we only know how to fight on the net!)

And that's the problem with the people here too, dunno how to appreciate what they got. No wonder the divorce rates among the younger generation is higher than the KLCI.

Helen said...

Fat chance OPEC will let the oil price dip below 90. Of course OPEC don't want to be seen playing the villain jacking up the oil price amidst the global economic crisis.

BUt then IMHO, the low price is not here to stay... :-)

Purple Haze said...

The oil price has dropped below US$90 a barrel and is currently at $88. With the present financial crisis and slowdown in the US, demand will likely decline for the next 6 mths and OPEC can either reduce production or let the price drop.

It is also likely that global interest rates will be lowered soon as a response to economic slowdown.

Question really is whether any of this will translate to lower general prices in Malaysia.

Anonymous said...

raz,

you sound like an idiot, you talk like an idiot, i guess you probably look like one too.

or monkeys is more fitting for people like you.

Anonymous said...

mave,
i think raz parents didn't waste any money on him. i doubt they even spent a cent on his education, if he any any to speak off.

probably just another mat rempit, internet style. got nothing better to do, nor know what to do with his life.

RaZ said...

You guys are right. My parents did not spend a cent on my education. It was provided for by the government of Malaysia. Ultimately, your parents paid for my education. Thank you.

Idiot? I think I prefer what others call me - asshole. At least I know what I am.

And that's the other problem you people have here, 'maki hamum' when you can't argue your points.

And you expect us Malays (Muslims) to be tolerant?

For those of you who are the real veterans of the Net, its me, RaZmataZ of #mamak. (Yups, the same asshole.) And to think those days, I use to think that the kids then had a better perspective on life.

Anonymous said...

that's why malaysia is so damm stupid to give u an education. well, what to do?

after studying still end up stupid, it probably the genes inside you.

KIMHO8 said...

Raz,

Cool down, Raz. No one is condemning any race and any religion over here.
Kita semua ialah rakyat Malaysia.

We just talk and comment on the politics and economies in peace. Criticise only on individual and all the political parties. We can call it a rubbish talk or as talk cock. No Hatred at all.

We do not want to fight each other over here. We are all truly Malaysians not the enemies.
We want to see a better tomorrow for our country just like you too.
We love Malaysia.

artchan said...

mav..

what makes you think Somali will take in Raz..

You can take Raz out of the kampong..but can't you take the kampong out of Raz.

We are discussing price of petrol and he goes on a crusade to bitch about others not understanding economics.

Leave him alone in his wonderland..or his kampong.

Have a nice day, Mave.

RaZ said...

Thanks kimho8, exactly my point. Not in verbatim though. But if you guys here are really interested in a better tomorrow then this is my advice: Go back and join Gerakan, MCA, MIC and UMNO (in alphabetical order) and make your vote count there.

No point bitching here or waiting for the next GE. Instead of doing the arithmetic on price of oil, do it on our democratic system here.

For example, in March, some 2,100 or more people(delegates) will determine the next president of UMNO. Not you nor I. The delegates there only represent about 0.035% of UMNO members. And the person they elect will automatically be the PM. These 2,100 delegates are in actual fact electing the next PM on behalf of the 27 million people in this country. Its the same with the other political parties.

Now do you see the shit?

Don't like it? Too bad. Wanna make a difference? Then fight within. Pitching for PKR or DAP or PAS makes no difference. They all have the same shit system.

Change the system and you will see a more significant change then a change in political party or individual.

And what has this got to do with price of oil? Same shit system. The present buffer system in price of petrol here has not changed a lot. Back in those days when petrol was RM 1.40 while the price of crude even lower at USD 20/bbl, we were already paying taxes on petrol. Its no different now except that petrol prices are RM 2.50/liter. Wait another few months, if the government dun reduce the price, then we can bitch all we want.

Till then, focus on the issue at hand, getting rid of Pak Lah. In the meantime, learn from Vincent and Ananda, if they can make it in our corrupted system of ours, so can you.

Peace bro.

RaZ said...

artchan,

For people like you who 'terasa' when I bitch about people in here, I guess you the one who 'makan' the chili.

Its people like you who gives your race or the community here a bad name.

KIMHO8 said...

Raz,

Thank you for your advice. I truly appreciate with all the good points given by you. Thanks once again.

artchan said...

raz..you wrote such a lengthy reply..was it a cut and paste?

Are you capable of intellgent discourse. Tell us something more besides "he umno elections, pas shit,pkr shit etc etc." that we don't know

This we all know... and don't get heated up. Can't take a small challenge. Go weep!

RaZ said...

I rest my case

RaZ said...

kimho8,

No need to thank me or anyone here. I just giving my piece of mind and speak out for the silent majority.

I am not an asshole and an idiot, I a rich asshole and idiot. And I got that way working through the system and changing it whenever I can. You kids can too if you focus your mind on what you want in life.

Jefus said...

Raz,.....remember this?



F**k DAP and PKR!
F**k the mamaks! And Abu Backar.

Heed PAS and UMNO. All this mess just cause UMNO has no balls to take out Pak Lah and the rest of the monkeys.

You all (including you Aisehman) were manupilated by the ‘powers that be’ (Be it BN or Oppo) in a boched plan to oust Pak Lah.

All of you, please stick to your ‘M’ in UMNO, ‘C’ in MCA and ‘I’ in MIC. There is nothing wrong in these organizations except their leaders.

The idea of a multi-racial politcal parties cannot even be exemplified in the existing ‘multi-racial’ parties like DAP or PKR and you people promotes equality.

There is no such thing as equality. Every man and woman is different and are from different territories and physical characteristic.

I have no problem with people who are Chinese or Indian or any other race (even Jews).

But I do have problem with Chinese and Indians as a race. The same with the West and Israel. Not because of its people but because what it represents.

Aisehman, you think you are good enough to compete with the other races on equal footing. Who helped you to be what you are today? If you put your kids through college on your own, I shall respect their rights to criticise affirmative action policies. In the meantime, shut up!

Stick to the issues at hand. Corruption and nepotism. Let Lim Eng Guan be the first to show example and step-down because of his family ties to Kit Siang. The we will talk about getting rid of KJ.

Never happen huh? So all this shit is just about power. Same game, different players.


go google in Aisehman, ( yup, I also post in that blog under a different moniker,......) so, u still alive? what made u change your tune? ppl don't need good memories nowadays, just good google machines,...

i don't need to add anything else, just quoting Aisheman,......



Razmataz, whatever.

But I seriously think you need help.

And don’t worry, I’ve been putting money aside for my kids’ education. If it’s not enough, I’ll take out a loan. If that’s not enough, I’ll take a night job or set up a small side business.

The point I’m trying to make is I’ll do whatever it takes to look after my family.

If people like you want to continue begging for Umno handouts, go ahead.

I don’t give a flying fuck over what self-mutilated invalids wallowing in self pity want do with their lives.


link here

ring a bell? so, go play with something u understand,.....

RaZ said...

jefus,

I am. That's why I not bitching as much as you.

KIMHO8 said...

Jefus,

Nevermind. At least we see the true colour of Raz. Good for us.

RaZ said...

jefus,

Change my tune? To what? Difference between ideals and reality? About bitch and doing?

You seemed so interested in me, why not google on new technology or business process? I think it would provide you with more ideas on how to get ahead in life.

Leave the bitching to me. I'm a master at it, albeit and idiot at times. Besides, I have the balls and the relevant ears than the ones in here.

And I think enough of this personal exchanges in this forum. Give some respect to Maverick, it is about 'intellectual' discourse on current issues at hand. The price of oil and I are not really current issues.

All bitching about prices of oil here. But people are oredi talking about USD 70/bbl by year end. Short-live happiness I think. Cheaper oil? Maybe, but do we still have jobs out there to help fund the purchases?

I'm already out of the market, holding cash and bracing for another 1997. Time to make some quick money soon.

Maverick SM said...

Jefus,

I don't think it is about a freefall of the crude oil price. It is more to do with supply and demand and the buffer stocks by US Govt.

Helen,

I believed even Opec can't stop the price of crude falling below US$50. However, we are reminded that US$50 is still high as the irrational exuberance over the last few months were unsustainable.


RaZ,

I don't expect a Muslim to be tolerant. The Quran and the Prophet expect Muslims to be tolerant and Virtuous.

KIMHO8,

I agree with your constructive proposition and an appropriate discourse in a forum. However, we find that individuals have skewed.

Artchan,

You have a good point. We were discussing about price of petrol and I don't understand what the diversion was intended.

KIMHO8 said...

Maverick,

Bingo! That's 100% accurate!

RaZ said...

Maverick,

If you think the price of oil is about 'supply and demand and the buffer stocks by US Govt,' the only part you got right is 'US.'

It costs less than USD 5/bbl to extract oil from the ground from land-based wells. Twice as much if from offshore wells. So how did the oil prices pass USD 100? Demand? Lemme see.. Previously we had about 20 years of oil reserves. But then again it was based on average price of USD 30/bbl. At USD 90/bbl we should be able to raise our oil reserves to about 60 years (meaning also our supply of oil has increase.) So mana itu supply and demand?

The only reason why the price of oil is yoyoing is because of institutional funds. Extend your charts back to 30 years and you will know what I mean.

But then to write about why and how the 'funds' got into the oil future trading is another story. But it is the most significant reason for price fluctuation of this commodity. And if you wanna talk about supply and demand of oil futures and its effect on the spot market, then you be hitting it on the nail.

Maverick SM said...

RaZ,

I appreciate the discussions on the oil stocks and the irrational exuberance of the prices of crude. You have made a few strong points of contention and I surely think there are more than just the institutional funds and speculators. If we can discuss more with some academic research and business trading experiences, more of the people here can have a better idea and possibly learn a thing or two. Thanks for a better discourse.

RaZ said...

Maverick,

'I surely think there are more than just the institutional funds and speculators.'

Too simplistic an answer for you? I was formerly from PETRONAS and still maintain business relationship with them. How else would I know these stuff.

But if you insist in your point of view you can be sure that the demand of oil now be less than what it was. And that is only due to the reduced economic activity brought upon by over priced oil prices in the first place.

But economic activities tend to react at a much slower pace than oil prices.

I used to think that the over-price of oil would lead to the global recession. But looks like I was wrong. Prices of oil are dropping in part because the banks (which are the main financier and sometimes players of these institutional funds) are collapsing from the sub-prime crisis. Chances are, the banks are pulling out from these derivative markets to consolidate their core business.

So as usual, when banks starts to fall, its bye bye boom town charlie.

Maverick SM said...

RaZ,

I was a consultant with Petronas and Shell.

RaZ said...

Maverick,

Since you brought out the subject of Quran, tolerance and me, I only have this to say:

It does not matter what is written in the Quran, Bible, Torah or any other 'holy' books. They are just inanimate mediums of the philosophies of life. However, they all seem to preach the same things and it is these principles that is suppose to 'guide' you so that you can manage life better.

Bottom line: You expect me to be tolerant as I expect the same of you. It would be a problem when your definition or level of tolerance is different than mine.

RaZ said...

Mav,

Sorry... You consultant? No wonder. Try doing the job, the perspective is different. And definitely the camaraderie too.

Oh well, looks like next year I be giving you some competition too.

Jefus said...

Yes, I agree, Warren Buffet had an interview with CNBC regarding the buffer stock is being too thin and skews the futures price whenever a shortage is anticipated.

And as for demand, yes, weakening.

Speculation? I think that has evaporated.

Jefus said...

and one other thing we missed out,....the weakening US dollar

Maverick SM said...

RaZ,

I do not agree with you on tolerance: "That you expect me and I expect you."

I do not expect anything from you and I do not expect you to be tolerant. It is you or me that who is a social animal decides the truism of life.

On a different perspective, if we call Muslims, then Muslims refer to a class of people who in principle accepted the teachings as espoused and dictated in the Quran. As such, in accordance with the teachings of the Prophet Muslims must by Islamic principles be tolerant. That's why I said that statement.

However, if I am speaking as a commoner and as a social being, then we normally refers to the truism of the social philosophy and the humanistic jurisprudence.

I made that statement in the context of your comments of which you cite Muslims; thus I quote Quran. That's the essence.

If you made a statement in the context of a social being, then I would have state the contextual aspect of the object and subject.

RaZ, I welcome competition as a consultant as well as I welcome strategic partnership too. We don't have to compete; instead we can cooperate to achieve a common objective.

Maverick SM said...

Jefus,

I don't think speculations nhave evaporated. It is in a consolidation phase and the fund administrators have to readjust their investment portfolios due to the cash strapped situation.

The US Dollar has to weaken to adjust.

RaZ said...

Mav,

You think too much. Life is actually much simpler than it is. Nevertheless, you are entitled to your 'world view.' After all, its the difference between each human being that makes life interesting and sometimes violent.

You may believe the essence of Muslim (Islam?) is the Quran but I think the essence is in the mind. God gave all of us brains, some better, some not so. The Quran or any other books contains only words. How we interpret it is what makes you different from me.

Religion aside, I still cannot understand why you harp on this issue of oil price. You may think it is an issue or trying to spin it as an issue but it is not.

It does not matter what the price of oil is. The consequences of the sharp rise in oil prices lead a domino effect unto the prices of other commodities and ultimately to the prices of goods and services in this country. Do you think if the price of oil goes back down to RM 1.92/liter the prices of food and transportation will come down too?

Its too late already. The only way prices come down is through a downturn in the economy. As a capitalist, I would say, so be it and let us all suffer. As a human being, kesian the less fortunates.

The solution is simple but no one wants to hear cuz its so simple, it makes the highly paid consultants and economist looks stupid.

You were looking at the general direction when you talk about demand and supply. High prices curb demand cuz there is not enough purchasing power. Why don't the government raise its wages and salaries to its employees to mitigate the rising prices?

Prices after all are relative. My favorite analogy are the whores of this world; why do whores in US or Europe cost more than over here? After all, they provide a standard service and men derive the same utility regardless. Why must the price of pussy be determined by exchange rates which are in turned determined by the demand and supply of a particular currency. Where is the connection there when it comes to providing basic services?

Anonymous said...

More arithmetics before I sleep.

Mav, I dunno how you got your RM 1.97/liter. As of 1st Oct the average Singapore wholesale price of mogas 95 was USD 0.59. That's RM 2.06/liter.

At our peak, RM 2.70/liter translate to about USD 126/bbl for Mogas eventhough oil price were pushing USD 150/bbl then.

But that is the problem with artificial economic buffering system, time lag. And we pretend we dunno when it favors us, and bitch like mad when it does not.

Likewise, given time, higher prices of consumer products will be offsetted by higher wages. And the economy will find its equilibrium again. But till that happens, we suffer lor. Whether we suffer in silence or scream and shout about it is our choices in life.

Anonymous said...

Another reduction that soon? stop dreaming. They need funds for MEGA PROJECTS

Maverick SM said...

RaZ,

You have great pointers and I will ponder over your thesis.

Somehow, we cannot escape the supply and demand concept and domination.

BTW, I am impressed by your intelligence and global diveersity viewpoints except that it perplexed me to read your much earlier comments which run contrary to your intellectualilty to provide substantive discourse.

I surely must say that your later comments made me respect your intellect more than your earlier. My apology for making such remarks.

RaZ said...

Mav,

No need to apologize. We are all human and have weaknesses. My weakness is my intolerance to stupidity, which is why people call me an asshole. I have this tendency to expect people to understand me or what I am trying to say.

Some people here were pissed off when I said they wasted their parents monies on education. And were more pissed off when they found out I had mine for free. Well, not actually free, I paid my dues to MARA in full so I can also claim I paid (in part)for my own education. Anyway, it does not matter who pays. If people look at the bigger picture and see that the 'government sponsored bumiputras graduate' today, are actually on 'your side.'

The new Malay today I think are too influenced on being idealistic especially on the concepts of equality, social order and corruption. And because of that, they tend to favor opposition and anti-establishment communities like the ones you have here. So in the bigger picture, these same Malays are your biggest support. Ironic ain't it?

Maverick SM said...

RaZ,

You are much affected by commenters while you made your point; however, you forget that I am the author of the article and I am also reading your comments in relation to my writing which may not gist with your points.

Anonymous said...

To All, I do not wish to spend time reading "dogs and cats" comments. We should spend time working out benefits for the Rakyat whether you are Malay, Chinese or Indian. Why follow our Government who has been wasting a lot of time fighting for power, dignity and face. There are so many better things that they can do. Simple principle but sadly the leaders do not see it.