Tuesday, August 02, 2005

KOPITIAM TALE: NEW NATIONAL AGENDA


NNA Posted by Picasa

ISA: Ah Beng, did you read the headline today: Pak Lah has a New National Agenda (NNA) for everyone.

AH BENG: I read it. Sounds fantastic, but...

ISA: But what? Still not happy ah? Pak Lah said, "No race in the country would be sidelined in the Government’s effort to elevate the economic status of the people under this new agenda. It would be fair and equitable to all races. Pak Lah said the Government needed to help those who had lagged behind but at the same time would not impede others from progressing. He also said that the government do not intend to stop the progress of any party just to wait for others to catch up. We must move together. However, those who have long lagged behind in facilities need to be given attention, to quicken their development through appropriate Government aid.

SAMY: Wah! I'm so happy to hear it. Now, my race is equal with everyone and we Indians are lagged behind in the economic distribution of wealth. So, I can now apply for AP and some land to built a house for my grandchildren. I must go tell Samy Vellu and thank him for fighting for us Indians. Ah Beng, you must also thank your MCA president too.

Ah Beng: It's so sweet to hear the news. I just wonder, how about the New Economic Policy (NEP) and the Malay Agenda (MA) as enunciated and demanded by UMNO Youth? Wouldn't the New National Agenda (NA) comes into conflict with it? Doesn't it sound contradictory, particularly the fact that NNA is propagated by Pak Lah, the UMNO President and Najib, UMNO deputy president, and NEP and MA is from UMNO Youth president and deputy president? Is UMNO and UMNO Youth having different agenda and ideology?

ISA: But Pak Lah and Najib is PM and DPM. So, NNA will overrule the MA and NEP.

SAMY: Wah..you mean the father-in-law is overruled his the son-in-law? Will they end up fighting each other?

ISA: No lah. No fighting. Pak Lah is PM, so he must make policy for everyone. Khairy is only deputy chief of Youth; so must talk like that in front of his voters. After they go home, they share the same ideology and eat the same food on the table, which is cooked by the same mother.

SAMY: But the food is cook by the servant, not mother Endon or wife Nori.

ISA: You ...porda! What I mean is home cook meals and home atmosphere, and father and son atmosphere.

AH BENG: I don't know how Pak Lah is going to keep his promise and implement the NNA. It sounds sweet and nice but it's full of contradiction.

ISA: What do you mean? Are you paranoid?

Ah Beng: No, I'm not suffering from paranoia. I'm looking at Pragmatism vs Idealism and I am happy to hear that we now have a new national agenda, and I hope the PM can keep his promise and deliver it.

SAMY: Then, what's the problem? You mean they won't give me some APs ah?

ISA: Aiyo Samy, don't just talk about your AP and granddaughter. Let's listen to what's Ah Beng's philosphy.

Ah Beng: Pak Lah's ideology is based on the presumption that he can close the wealth gap between the bumiputras and non-bumiputras, or narrow it or ideally eradicated. But the problem is not the wealth gap of the Bumi and non-Bumi. It is about the few rich Bumi and many poor Bumis and the few rich non-Bumis and the many poor non-Bumis. The rich Bumis are very powerful and they can influence the policy makers in UMNO and the rich non-Bumis can influence MCA and MIC. At the same time, Pak Lah said that Barisan Nasional leaders agree that there is no dispute among them on the issue of 30% bumiputra equity and everyone welcome the Prime Minister's assurance that all races will be treated fairly. How can this be done?

ISA: What is the difficulty?

AH BENG: Let's take the 30% issue. Let's accept the axiom that Bumi now have 18% control of equity as correct. At current market capitalization of RM 650 billion, 30% means RM200 billion. 18% control is equal to about RM117 billion. So, UMNO needs another 12% of equity. and it works out to be around RM83 billion. It does mean that Bumi must come up with RM80 billion and buy over the stakes from non-Bumi's, and these non-bumis are mostly foreign investors. Are we saying that we will reduce foreign investments in the equity market by RM83 billion? Are we not saying that we are driving away investors?

ISA: No, we can enlarge the cake and Pak Lah say we built capacity. The foreign investors are welcome to participate in our economic activities.

AH BENG: Now, if we enlarge the cake or increase capacity, then the market capitalization will balloon to say RM1 trillion. Then, to have 30% stake which is now RM130 billion shall mean Bumi must control RM300 billion. And, the current Bumi stake of RM130 billion will be resized to 13% of RM1 trillion.

SAMY: So, you mean Bumi can never achieve 30% ah? Like that, then even if the Bumis can pump in another RM83 billion and increase the Bumi stakes to RM200 billion, it will still not be 30% and the problem will not be solved? How eh? Then UMNO Youth will cry and shout again because they have 18% now, and after pumping in another RM83 billion, the total of Rm200 billion becomes only 20% and the current 18% will become only 13%? Aiyo, like that no AP for me lah...

ISA: That way, if we want 30%, then we must not let the market capitalization increase by way of additional investment. We just buy over the other people's share up to RM83 billion and let the market cap stay as $650 billion, so that $200 billion will be enough to control 30% lah.

SAMY: Eh Isa, the market cap is measured by the number of shares issued multiply by the share-price quoted. If the share-price goes up, the market cap increase automatically. Then, $200 billion will not be 30% anymore?

ISA: Aiya Samy, you otak udang. When the price goes up, the shares hold by Bumi also goes up and their $200 billion worth of shares will be worth in tandem with the adjusted market cap. What we are calculating now is based on baseline value. You think I don't know economics and statistics ah? I also come from Harvard secondary school.

SAMY: What's that Harvard Secondary School? Never heard of it? I heard there is Harvard Schools of Economics, Harvard Business School but ...?

ISA: My boss is a Harvard graduate. So, I worked under him and he is my teacher lah. So, I consider I'm Harvardian ... cannot call myself Harvard Uni graduate, so call secondary school graduate lah!

SAMY: Wow, you very innovative and creative. I think you must go and help Pak Lah to implement the NNA.

ISA: Shut up, Samy. Let's hear Ah Beng's side of the thesis.

SAMY: Eh, it's not thesis lah. It's antithesis.

ISA: Ok lah, whatever you call it. Ah Beng, can you explain further?

AH BENG: Economic prosperity is not measured by how many percentum Bumi holds. It is about wealth distribution, that is, the Malays as a whole must be benefiting from the system and upgraded. Sustainable system requires that the Malay race must be enabled with relevant knowledge and competencies, and the fundamentals of economic management to participate in the global economic activities, competing against cost-leaders such as China; and technology leaders such as USA and Europe; and networking with strategic partners, forming alliances and cross-trading of products and services that builts competitive advantages; and at the same time, enhance our own research and development capacity for new product development, forecasting and predicting future trends and growth areas, and ensuring change in line with global environments and competitiveness.

SAMY: Wow, very hard to understand. So many things to do ah and surely must need a lot of people to carry out the task lah?

ISA: Aiyo Samy, we don't need so many otak udang people. We need competent and high performance people who are willing to work hard and have the right attitude.

AH BENG: Right, Isa. And if we don't have these human capitals, we need to outsource them. That way, it may affect the current employment ratios, and may affect some of the Malays in high position, and to a lesser extent some non-Malays too.

SAMY: But if we remove and replace some of these Malays from high position, then we may face another crisis, and UMNO Youth will shout again. Look at Proton; they remove Mahaleel and Mahathir is shouting and going berserk. We cannot remove those in high position... we can add some orang puteh, but don't remove the Malays.

AH BENG: That's the dilemma. For example, if Proton install an American as CEO, then the CEO might also want to bring along some of his experts and specialists and to an extent, quite a few Malays will be replaced at the top. That's the only way for restructuring a turnaround and improve. But will we do it? It may cause disruption and to some extent, chaos are imperative... but we need chaos management and to take some pain in restructuring. We cannot have the cake and at the same time, eat it.

ISA: I understand, but we Malays cannot accept it as it will unsettle UMNO and UMNO relies on the votes of the Malays. If we inject some pain now, UMNO leaders will cry out loud and cry discrimination so that the Malays will hear them and it meets their appetite. We know we need to change and to improve, but we need a method that has no pain and ultimately, the perceptions of the Malays are important. They cannot be seen as losing control of any portion of power management.

AH BENG: I agree. All UMNO leaders including Pak Lah and Mahathir knows it but they can't overcome it as this is not a one man crusade. Inevitably, when globalization and liberalization engulf us, then the system will be forced to retract and retreat and we may see the clash of civilizations within our archipelago.

SAMY: I don't understand what you all are saying lah. I think I like what Pak Lah said and I am going to seek equality and AP; that's what he promised. Pak Lah promised that "All poor people must be protected and be given opportunities to benefit from poverty eradication programmes." I am going to see Samy Vellu and ask for some APs and a piece of land. Bye bye and see you all.

AH BENG & ISA: Alamak... this Samy, so excited about the NNA. Let's go home. Bye




NEW NATIONAL AGENDA Posted by Picasa

2 comments:

Din said...

this is definately a smartly written post. Kudos!

Anonymous said...

good blog.

we need capable and right people at the right time at the right place. And all malaysia need new way of thinking, the positive thinking, the nationalism thinking (no, not the Malaysia Boleh!, but for better Malaysia!) and don't thraw rubbish from the moving car windows!